At the beginning of May we were expecting the beginning of a new bull market as confirmed by the Golden Cross (50 and 200-day moving averages) and positive seasonality.
The recent rally coupled with increased market breadth (participation from altcoins) is confirming a new young bull has begun.
Additionally, some very interesting updates the institutional crypto front have emerged.
We're hearing from Coinbase that 60% of their volume come from institutions these days. (1)
The NYSE Arca is looking to list an ETF Backed by Bitcoin and T-Bills (2). This would be a genius move to increase bitcoin inflows and create positive pressure on the price.
Bitcoin halving is now less than one year away.
All of this is incredibly bullish for Bitcoin and should provide great support if prices move lower in the short term. We expect the new wave of adoption to take us past $60,000 in the months to come.
However, the shorter-mid term is not as rosy.
We've noticed a historical pattern of "pump and re-accumulation" coming out of bear markets.
Seasonal tendencies also favor a move lower for Bitcoin into July. Seasonality is not enough to hang your hat on but can provide a nice wind.
Our BTCUSD systems are still long. The last buy signal was generated the 29th of March at $4053 (previous buy was $3475).
Although we don't have a clear sell signal yet and just a trailing stop loss at the $6,200 level because of the excessive volatility, I believe at 54 days old this signal is getting quite long in the tooth.
A break of $6,900 would trigger some of our systems to get out
So far, we classically topped on a furry of bullish predictions of $9,500, $14,000 and new all-time highs... A few days ago it seemed like everybody had a higher target for Bitcoin.. yet the price has struggled since.
Personally, I was skeptical and I believe the picture looks more and more like this
The market tops on greed and conviction. Indifference is right around the corner... And the best buying opportunity will be after the fear and the panic..
After the market shakes out the weak hands once again and all of those who bought above $7,0000.
All in all, this should be constructive for Altcoins
As Bitcoin slides into indifference, the appetite for risk will shift to altcoins.
We're already noticing this in our Dominance model. The blue line is a measure of Bitcoin's dominance compared to other coins.
When it is above 0 it means that you should favor Bitcoin in your portfolio compared to other coins. When it drops below 0 we get what is generally known as an "alt season".
Early April we got a signal that it was time to abandon alt coins and only hold bitcoin.
So far we have not gotten an "official" signal for alt-season but Bitcoin's dominance and strength have fallen off a cliff since the top a few days back.
Our models see the most consistent and least volatile returns to come from the following coins: Monero, Ethereum, EOS, Dash
Over the past few days, we've been allocating from our Bitcoin portfolio into these potentially more rewarding coins.
Bitcoin Cash although weaker in the past few weeks, held up extremely well bouncing back from the bottom of the bear market and deserves being mentioned.
In fact, a portfolio of 50% Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and 50% Binance Token (BNB) would have been a winning combination and would have crushed Bitcoin since the bottom of the bear market.
For those interested in smaller tokens and trades that can move a lot - the likes of Fetch.AI, Celer, Matic and IEO we present the following coins and buy signals.
The number represents the number of active "Buy" signals right now for that coin.
My guess is that Holo (HOT) could also very well be the next Chainlink (LINK) and hit a 200% gain for those getting in now.